The NGO Project Part XII: CTCL in NH
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Introduction
Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?
Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable democrat ballot harvesting operation.
Background
This is Part XII in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect CTCL had on AZ, CO, CT, GA, MI, NM, NY, PA, TX, UT, VA and WI.
This article will solely focus on CTCL in New Hampshire (NH).
Calculation Basis
The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.
Analysis
65 CTCL grants were distributed to cities in NH that cut across all of NH 10 counties. Therefore, all NH counties are CTCL counties. On a per county basis, CTCL impacted all 806,205 votes cast in NH.
The total amount of grants to NH was ~ $467,807 and the value of individual grants ranged from ~ $16,000 to $141,000.
What is striking about NH is that the 2020DIFF for each county is positive meaning that D’s came out in a higher ratio to R’s than in 2020 in all counties. Does that make sense to the residents?
50% of the grants were focused in the 2 counties of Hillsborough and Rockingham. The $/vote spent by CTCL in these five counties range from $0.36/vote to $2.26/vote (all parties).
Given that there are no NonCTCL counties, we will need to take a simpler approach with this analysis. There is no way to compare CTCL to NonCTCL counties in NH.
2020DIFF Calculated with Weighted Average
For this analysis, I used a slightly different way to calculate the 2020DIFF using a weighted average based on total votes in a county. This is what it looks like.
w = Total County Vote / Total State Vote
a = D/R2020 - D/R2016 (for CTCL Counties)
a' = a * w (per county)
2020DIFF = sum(a'1:a'n)
This method in theory permits a better correlation for D vote harvesting because it is weighted for counties with higher vote totals.
The 2020DIFF for CTCL counties is 0.140 or 14% meaning the ratio of D/R for CTCL counties shifted 14% higher in 2020 compared to 2016.
This adds up to ~ 60,000 D votes across all CTCL counties or a potential swing of 120,000 votes.
Given that Biden beat Trump in NH by ~ 59,000 votes, the extra CTCL votes could have tipped the scale in Biden’s favor. To put it differently, had CTCL not meddled in NH, Trump very well could have won NH, using this analysis type.
Conclusion
CTCL issued ~$467,000 grants in NH and “purchased” ~ 60,000 more D votes in CTCL counties than may have occurred without CTCL grants.
That is ~ $8/Vote.
Pretty good return on your investment if you are part of the election racketeering cabal.
References
CTCL IRS Form 990 (used revised form from January 2022)
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