The NGO Project Part III: WI Grants for Votes Scheme
How CTCL carpet bombed the state with 183 grants in the 2020 Presidential Election
Introduction
Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?
Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable Democrat ballot harvesting operation.
Background
This is the Part III in the NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect CTCL had on AZ, CO, GA, NM, and UT.
This article will solely focus on CTCL in WI.
Calculation Basis
The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.
Analysis
WI CTCL grants are curious because of the sheer number of them. 183 grants were made to local governments (city, township, village) in 44 (61%) of the 72 WI counties. Total votes cast in these “CTCL Counties” account for ~ 2,795,000 (85%) and “NonCTCL Counties” was ~ 497,000 (15%). The value of those grants ranged from $5,000 to $3,482,568. The top 20 grants are listed below.
For clarity, I want to emphasize this point! The IRS 990 grants are not listed by county so that aggregation has to be done manually from the 183 individual local government grants (fun times indeed!).
137 (75%) of the grants were for $5,000 or less. Does that strike you as bizarre? Am I to believe that a village mustered the effort to fill out an application and apply for a $5,000 grant and that grant made a meaningful contribution to public safety during the pandemic? The administrative paperwork needed to apply, accept and spend a $5,000 grant hardly strikes me as worth the effort. It would be interesting to FOIA some of these local governments for that information.
The average 2016 D/R ratio for CTCL and NonCTCL counties is effectively the same at ~0.81. This gross average measure does not seem to be a correlation to how grants were distributed in 2020.
The real story here is that of the ~$9,950,000 in CTCL grants in WI, $8,690,000 (87%) were made to cities in the 5 counties of Brown, Dane, Milwaukee, Kenosha and Racine. The average 2016 D/R for these 5 counties was 1.6 which would indicate D bias considering this is 2.2x the 2016 D/R ratio of 0.72 for NonCTCL counties.
To put it a different way, 87% of the money was granted to counties that in 2016 had 2.2x the D turnout ratio compared to the rest of the state. Is that fair?
2020DIFF Calculated with Weighted Average
For this analysis, I used a slightly different way to calculate the 2020DIFF using a weighted average based on total votes in a county. This is what it looks like.
w = Total County Vote / Total State Vote
a = D/R2020 - D/R2016 (for CTCL Counties)
a' = a * w (per county)
2020DIFF = sum(a'1:a'n)
This method in theory permits a better correlation for D vote harvesting because it is weighted for counties with higher vote totals. Using this method, the 2020DIFF is 5.4% for CTCL counties.
To emphasize this point, when you calculate 2020DIFF for NonCTCL counties, the value is 0% meaning there was effectively no change in the weighted average between 2020 and 2016 of D and R voters.
Therefore that means that the D difference in CTCL counties was 5.4% (5.4%-0%).
14 of 28 NonCTCL counties (50%) had +2020DIFF at the county level which indicates an increasing D trend. 26 of 44 CTCL counties (60%) had +2020DIFF at the county level. Therefore CTCL counties (by count) were 10% more likely to trend D and these are the counties that contributed D votes.
Using a 5.4% CTCL factor on +2020DIFF counties means that in aggregate, ~ 68,000 votes (136,000 potential swing) were “harvested” by CTCL grant money.
This was enough to flip the state of WI from Biden (1,630,673 votes) to Trump (1,610,065 votes).
Conclusion
CTCL issued ~$10,000,000 grants in WI and “purchased” ~ 68,000 more D votes in CTCL counties than would have occurred without CTCL grants.
That is ~ $150/Vote.
Pretty good return on your investment if you are part of the election racketeering cabal.