The NGO Project Part IX: CTCL in VA

Sic Semper Tyrannis - Victory Over Tyrants

May 07, 2022

Introduction

Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?

Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable democrat ballot harvesting operation.

Background

This is Part IX in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect CTCL had on AZ, CO, GA, MI, NM, NY, PA, UT, and WI.

This article will solely focus on CTCL in Virginia (VA).

Calculation Basis

The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.

Analysis

Virginia is special. The voting results are summarized by independent cities and county. There are a total of 133 of those “entities”. Of the 133 VA entities, 38 (29%) are CTCL Entities.

Total votes cast in CTCL Entities were ~ 1,926,129 (42%) and NonCTCL Entities were ~ 2,534,395 (58%). To state it a different way, on a per entity basis, CTCL had the opportunity to influence 42% of VA voters.

The total amount of grants to VA was ~ $3,753,000 and the value of individual grants ranged from ~ $5,000 to $1,243,000.

This table includes the top 5 CTCL grants by entity.

2.9MM of the grants (78%) were focused in 5 counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Henrico, Loudon and Prince William. The $/vote spent by CTCL in these five counties range from $1.58/vote to $2.77/vote (all parties). The vote totals in these 5 entities account for ~ 32% of the votes in VA.

To state that a different way, 78% of the grants were spent on 32% of the total votes cast in VA.

The average 2016 D/R ratio for CTCL Counties was 1.21 (not weighted). The average 2016 D/R ratio for NonCTCL Counties was 0.96 (not weighted). This means that CTCL grants were provided to more D leaning entities. The top 5 counties in terms grants had a average 2016 D/R ratio of 2.28….big time D areas for sure. This is 2x the NonCTCL county average in 2016.

To continue on this track, if you look at all the counties in 2016 that had a D/R ratio of less than one (R leaning counties), there were 93 (70%) counties. In total, they received ~ $480,000 in grants in 2020. This is a stingy ~ 13% of the total CTCL grants. These counties contributed 1.9MM votes (all parties) in 2016 which is 48% of the vote total.

To put it a different way, 13% of the 2020 CTCL grants went to counties where 48% of the votes were cast in 2016 in NonCTCL Entities.

The lucky 26 of 93 R leaning entities that received CTCL money in 2020…..

Does this fact alone confirm or disapprove my thesis that the grants were NOT used for public safety?

2020DIFF Calculated with Weighted Average

For this analysis, I used a slightly different way to calculate the 2020DIFF using a weighted average based on total votes in a county. This is what it looks like.

w = Total County Vote / Total State Vote

a = D/R2020 - D/R2016 (for CTCL Counties)

a' = a * w (per county)

2020DIFF = sum(a'1:a'n)

This method in theory permits a better correlation for D vote harvesting because it is weighted for counties with higher vote totals.

The 2020DIFF for CTCL counties is 0.185 and for NonCTCL counties it is 0.137. This means that the CTCL D vote harvesting factor in CTCL entities is 0.185-0.137 = 0.048 or ~ 5%. However, for the sake of this model, the 5% D vote harvesting factor will only be applied to 17 entities that had a +2020DIFF trend in 20202. See below. This results in ~55,000 additional D votes or a potential swing of ~110,000 votes total.

Given that Biden had ~450,000 more votes than Trump in 2020, removing the CTCL factor in VA alone would not be enough to flip the state. However, VA does fall in line with all other states I have examined to date (except the outlier FL) that CTCL is a D vote harvesting operation.

Noteworthy R Stalwarts

I am adding a new section for this article and all others going forward highlighting the top 5 R stalwarts in terms of -2020DIFF which indicates higher R turnout as a ratio to D between 2016 and 2020. Petersburg City rocked it even though they received CTCL money. May I ask what they did with the “odd” value of $81,890 dollars? Why not ask for $82,000 or $81,900? I am sure the Zucks could have afforded it.