The NGO Project Part LIII: CTCL in MD
Scuto bonæ voluntatis tuæ coronasti nos: With Favor Wilt Thou Encompass Us as with a Shield
Introduction
Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?
Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable democrat ballot harvesting operation.
Background
This is Part XLIX in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect the Center for Technology and Civic Life (CTCL) had on AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, GA, HI, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NH, NJ, NE, NM, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WI, WV and WY.
This article will solely focus on CTCL in Maryland (MD).
Calculation Basis
The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.
Analysis
21 of 24 MD counties (88%) received CTCL grants.
Total votes cast in CTCL counties were ~ 2,939,527 (97%) and NonCTCL counties was ~ 97,503 (3%). To state it a different way, on a per county basis, CTCL had the opportunity to influence 97% of MD voters.
The total amount of grants to MD was ~ $6,195,787 and the value of individual grants ranged from ~ $9,500 to $1,325,000
This table includes the top 5 CTCL grants by county.
$5,000,000 of the grants (81%) were focused in the 5 counties above. The $/vote spent by CTCL in these five counties range from $1.50/vote to $4.83/vote (all parties). The vote totals in these 5 counties account for ~59% of the votes in MD.
To state that a different way, 81% of the grants were spent on 59% of the total votes cast in MD.
The average 2016 D/R ratio for CTCL Counties was 1.785 (not weighted). The average 2016 D/R ratio for NonCTCL Counties was also 0.655 (not weighted). This is ~3x the NonCTCL county average in 2016. More bias in favor of D.
The top 5 counties in terms grants had a average 2016 D/R ratio of 5.022. This is ~8x the NonCTCL county average in 2016. More bias in favor of D.
If you look at all the counties in 2016 that had a D/R ratio of less than one (R leaning counties), there were 17 (71%) counties. In total, they received ~ $729,000 (12%) in grants in 2020. These counties contributed ~771,527 votes (all parties) in 2016 which is 28% of the vote total.
To put it a different way, 12% of the 2020 CTCL grants went to counties where 28% of the votes were cast in 2016 in NonCTCL counties.
Do these facts alone confirm or disapprove my thesis that the grants were NOT used for public safety?
2020DIFF Calculated with Weighted Average
For this analysis, I used a slightly different way to calculate the 2020DIFF using a weighted average based on total votes in a county. This is what it looks like.
w = Total County Vote / Total State Vote
a = D/R2020 - D/R2016 (for CTCL Counties)
a' = a * w (per county)
2020DIFF = sum(a'1:a'n)
This method in theory permits a better correlation for D vote harvesting because it is weighted for counties with higher vote totals.
The 2020DIFF for CTCL counties is 0.187 and for NonCTCL counties it is 0.042. This means that the CTCL D vote harvesting factor in CTCL entities is 0.187-0.042 = 0.145 or 15%. The number of D votes harvested based on this model is “conservatively” ~227,000 D votes or a potential swing of ~ 500,000 votes. Given that Biden beat Trump by ~1,000,000 votes, without CTCL this could have been a lot closer but still would have gone to Biden given the assumptions of this model.
These are all of the CTCL counties. Because
Noteworthy R Stalwarts
These are all of the R stalwarts in terms of -2020DIFF which indicates higher R turnout as a ratio to D between 2016 and 2020. Prince George’s County stands out because they received more than 1MM in grants…but….the overall D/R 2020 is still one of the highest in the country at +10.
Conclusion
CTCL issued ~$6.2MM grants in MD and “purchased” ~ 227,000 more D votes in CTCL counties than would have occurred without CTCL grants. Because of MD had strong Biden support, the grants don’t seem to have tipped the scale.
That is ~ $27/Vote.
A good investment if you are part of the election racketeering cabal.
All Counties
References
CTCL IRS Form 990 (revised form from Jan 2022 used)
Telegram - https://t.me/electiondataanalyzer
Truth - @ElectionDataAnalyzer
The math here is simple, try this on your own. It is a model to look for trends, not an exact science.