The NGO Project Part VI: CTCL in New York
CTCL influence in the Empire State in the 2020 Presidential Election
Introduction
Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?
Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable democrat ballot harvesting operation.
Background
This is Part VI in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect CTCL had on AZ, CO, GA, MI, NM, PA, UT, and WI.
This article will solely focus on CTCL in New York (NY).
Calculation Basis
The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.
Analysis
Of the 62 NY counties, 35 (58%) are CTCL Counties because grants were made in the county.
Total votes cast in CTCL Counties were ~ 4,943,000 (57%) and NonCTCL Counties were ~ 3,673,750 (43%). To state it a different way, on a per County basis, CTCL had the opportunity to influence 57% of NY voters.
The total amount of grants to NY was ~ $25,500,000 and the value of individual grants ranged from ~ $7,000 to $19,000,000.
This table includes the NonCTCL counties.
23.6MM of the grants (93%) were focused in 5 counties of Erie, Nassau, New York, Suffolk and Westchester. The $/vote spent by CTCL in these five counties range from $1.19/vote to $27.75/vote (all parties).
The average 2016 D/R ratio for CTCL Counties was 1.14 (not weighted). The average 2016 D/R ratio for NonCTCL Counties was 1.28 (not weighted). This sort of comparison is heavily influenced by the Bronx that had an astonishing D/R in 2016 of 9.36 in 2016!! The Bronx then “declined” to a D/R ratio of 5.25 in 2020….more on this below.
The top 5 counties in terms grants had a whopping average 2016 D/R ratio of 2.83!! As one might expect, the top 5 counties which voted heavy D in 2016 received 93% of the grants in 2020. Need I say more? (Yes I will).
To continue on this track, if you look at all the counties in 2016 that had a D/R ratio of less than one (R leaning counties), there were 45 (73%) counties. In total, they received ~ 2MM in grants in 2020. This is a stingy ~ 8% of the total CTCL grants. These counties contributed 2.4MM votes (all parties) in 2016 which is 30% of the vote total.
To put it a different way, 8% of the 2020 CTCL grants went to counties where 30% of the votes were cast in 2016.
Does this fact alone confirm or disapprove my thesis that the grants were NOT used for public safety?
Back to the Bronx….
From what I can see in the data, a decision was made not spend money in the D stronghold of the Bronx which had a 2016 D/R of 9.34. What happened in 2020? Without CTCL meddling, the Bronx had a relative huge swing in 2020 D/R to 5.25.
To put it a different way, the 2020DIFF value decreased by a factor of -4.11 (5.25 - 9.34). This basically means a much stronger R showing because the amount of votes Clinton received in 2016 (353k) and Biden received (355k) in 2020 was effectively the same in the Bronx.
The people, without CTCL meddling, came out for Trump in the Bronx at a much higher percentage in 2020 than in 2016.
2020DIFF Calculated with Weighted Average
For this analysis, I used a slightly different way to calculate the 2020DIFF using a weighted average based on total votes in a county. This is what it looks like.
w = Total County Vote / Total State Vote
a = D/R2020 - D/R2016 (for CTCL Counties)
a' = a * w (per county)
2020DIFF = sum(a'1:a'n)
This method in theory permits a better correlation for D vote harvesting because it is weighted for counties with higher vote totals.
The 2020DIFF for CTCL counties is -0.089 and for NonCTCL counties is an incredible -0.370. What does this mean? It means that based on a weighted average, NonCTCL counties trended R ~4x in the ratio of D/R voters in 2020.
The CTCL impact factor can then be calculated as : -0.089 - (-0.370) = 0.281 (28%).
This means that in CTCL counties on average, 28% of the voters were “harvested”. This adds up to ~ 800,000 D votes across all CTCL counties.
Given that Biden beat Trump in NY by ~ 2MM votes, the 800,000 extra CTCL votes would have made the result much tighter. But using this analysis type, does not appear to have tipped the scale completely. Still, 800,000 votes is outrageous.
Conclusion
CTCL issued ~$25,500,000 grants in NY and “purchased” ~ 800,000 more D votes in CTCL counties than would have occurred without CTCL grants.
That is ~ $3/Vote.
Pretty good return on your investment if you are part of the election racketeering cabal.
References
Telegram - https://t.me/electiondataanalyzer
Truth - @ElectionDataAnalyzer
Do you have individual analysis of Dutchess County, NY? Thank you, J