The NGO Project Part XIV: CTCL in Maine
Dirigo - I Lead
Introduction
Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?
Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable democrat ballot harvesting operation.
Background
This is Part XIV in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect CTCL had on AZ, CO, CT, GA, MI, NH, NM, NY, PA, TX, UT, VA and WI.
This article will solely focus on CTCL in Maine (ME).
Calculation Basis
The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.
Analysis
CTCL made 89 grants to various cities in all 16 counties in ME. The results here are rolled up by county and all 16 counties were impacted by these grants.
Therefore, I cannot compare CTCL counties to NonCTCL counties in ME. A simpler approach will be used for this analysis.
All 822,534 votes cast were impacted by CTCL because cities in every county received grants.
The total amount of grants to ME was ~ $3,577,000 and the value of individual grants ranged from ~ $20,000 to $880,000.
This table was aggregated from individual city grant data to the county level.
$2.8MM of the grants (78%) were focused in the five counties of Androsoggin, Cumberland, Kennebec, Penobscot and York. These counties accounts for 66% of all votes in RI. To put it another way, 66% of the grant money was distributed to 78% of the cast votes.
The $/vote spent by CTCL in all counties range from $1.14/vote to $9.95/vote (all parties).
The average 2016 D/R ratio is 0.960. The average 2020 D/R ratio is 1.070 indicating a D shift overall in ME.
2020DIFF Calculated with Weighted Average
For this analysis, I used a slightly different way to calculate the 2020DIFF using a weighted average based on total votes in a county. This is what it looks like.
w = Total County Vote / Total State Vote
a = D/R2020 - D/R2016 (for CTCL Counties)
a' = a * w (per county)
2020DIFF = sum(a'1:a'n)
This method in theory permits a better correlation for D vote harvesting because it is weighted for counties with higher vote totals.
As stated above, my typical model does not work for ME because all counties received grants.
Therefore, if you just calculate the weighted average of 2020DIFF for all counties, you end up with a whopping 17% factor. This implies that for counties with a +2020DIFF value, D gains equated to ~69,000 votes or a potential swing of 138,000 votes.
Given that Biden beat Trump by ~ 70,000 votes, ME could have been flipped from Trump to Biden given the meddling by CTCL.
Conclusion
CTCL issued ~$3.6MM grants in ME and “purchased” ~ 69,000 more D votes in CTCL counties than would have occurred without CTCL grants.
That is ~ $50/Vote.
Pretty good return on your investment if you are part of the election racketeering cabal.
References
CTCL IRS Form 990 (revised form from Jan 2022 used)
Telegram - https://t.me/electiondataanalyzer
Truth - @ElectionDataAnalyzer
The math here is simple, try this on your own. It is a model to look for trends, not an exact science.