The NGO Project Part XV: CTCL in Rhode Island

Hope? You Decide.

Introduction

Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?

Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable democrat ballot harvesting operation.

Background

This is Part XV in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect CTCL had on AZ, CO, CT, GA, ME, MI, NH, NM, NY, PA, TX, UT, VA and WI.

This article will solely focus on CTCL in Rhode Island (RI).

Calculation Basis

The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.

Analysis

CTCL made 39 grants to various cities in all 5 counties. The results here are rolled up by county and ALL 5 RI counties were impacted by these grants.

Therefore, I cannot compare CTCL counties to NonCTCL counties in RI. A simpler approach will be used for this analysis.

All 516,383 votes cast were impacted by CTCL because cities in every county received grants.

The total amount of grants to RI was ~ $679,230 and the value of individual grants ranged from ~ $34,000 to $460,000.

This table was aggregated from individual city grant data to the county level.

$459,000 of the grants (68%) were focused in the county of Providence. This county accounts for 53% of all votes in RI. To put it another way, 68% of the grant money was distributed to 53% of the cast votes.

The $/vote spent by CTCL in all counties range from $0.80/vote to $1.69/vote (all parties).

The average 2016 D/R ratio is 1.3923. The average 2020 D/R ratio is 1.600 indicating a D shift overall in RI.

2020DIFF Calculated with Weighted Average

For this analysis, I used a slightly different way to calculate the 2020DIFF using a weighted average based on total votes in a county. This is what it looks like.

w = Total County Vote / Total State Vote

a = D/R2020 - D/R2016 (for CTCL Counties)

a' = a * w (per county)

2020DIFF = sum(a'1:a'n)

This method in theory permits a better correlation for D vote harvesting because it is weighted for counties with higher vote totals.

As stated above, my typical model does not work for RI because all counties received grants.

Therefore, if you just calculate the weighted average of 2020DIFF for all counties, you end up with a whopping 12.4% factor. This implies that for counties with a +2020DIFF value, D gains equated to ~38,000 votes or a potential swing of 76,000 votes.

Given that Biden beat Trump by ~ 106,000 votes, RI would have been much closer without CTCL meddling given the context of this model.

Conclusion

CTCL issued ~$679,000 grants in RI and “purchased” ~ 38,000 more D votes in CTCL counties than would have occurred without CTCL grants.

That is ~ $18/Vote.

Pretty good return on your investment if you are part of the election racketeering cabal.

References

2016

2020

CTCL IRS Form 990 (revised form from Jan 2022 used)

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Truth - @ElectionDataAnalyzer

The math here is simple, try this on your own. It is a model to look for trends, not an exact science.