The NGO Project Part XLVIII: CTCL in Hawaii
Ua Mau ke Ea o ka ʻĀina i ka Pono: The life of the land is perpetuated in righteousness
Introduction
Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?
Background
This is Part XLVIII in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect the Center for Technology and Civic Life (CTCL) had on AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, GA, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA, ME, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NH, NJ, NE, NM, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WI and WY.
This article will solely focus on CTCL in Hawaii (HI).
Calculation Basis
The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.
Analysis
This analysis is going to be short and sweet because all of the counties had a -2020DIFF which prevents the calculation of a harvesting factor in this model.
3 of 5 HI counties received CTCL grants. Tiny Kalawao (24 total votes) is effectively part of Maui for all practical purposes.
Total votes cast in CTCL counties were ~ 574,493 (100%).
The total amount of grants to HI was ~ $490,850.
This table includes all of the counties and the grants. The $/vote totals ranged from $0.48 to $2.02.
The important item to note here is how R all of the counties shifted in 2020 compared to 2016, by YUGE factors, based on the 2020DIFF County factor.
I can only offer that CTCL money did not prevent a heavy shift to R. Maybe HI is really an R state in the making?
References
CTCL IRS Form 990 (revised form from Jan 2022 used)
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Truth - @ElectionDataAnalyzer
The math here is simple, try this on your own. It is a model to look for trends, not an exact science.