The NGO Project Part XXX: CTCL in MT

Oro y plata - Gold and Silver

Introduction

Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?

Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable democrat ballot harvesting operation.

Background

This is Part XXV in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect the Center for Technology and Civic Life (CTCL) had on AZ, CA, CO, CT, GA, IA, IL, ME, ME, MI, MN, NC, NH, NJ, NE, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA and WI.

This article will solely focus on CTCL in Montana (MT).

Calculation Basis

The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.

Analysis

28 of 56 MY counties (50%) received CTCL grants.

Total votes cast in CTCL counties were ~ 431,220 (71%) and NonCTCL counties was ~ 172,420 (29%). To state it a different way, on a per county basis, CTCL had the opportunity to influence 71% of MT voters.

The total amount of grants to MT was ~ $2,461,810 and the value of individual grants ranged from ~ $5,000 to $320,593.

This table includes the top 5 CTCL grants by county. [edited]

$1,488,594 of the grants (60%) were focused in the 5 counties above. The $/vote spent by CTCL in these five counties range from $3.82/vote to $16.84/vote (all parties). The vote totals in these 5 counties account for ~47% of the votes in MT. To state that a different way, 60% of the grants were spent on 47% of the total votes cast in MT. Is that fair if this was all about a Plandemic?

The top 5 counties in terms of $/vote (all parties) are the following:

The average 2016 D/R ratio for CTCL Counties was 0.551 (not weighted). The average 2016 D/R ratio for NonCTCL Counties was 0.359 (not weighted). This means that CTCL grants were provided to more D leaning counties. The top 5 counties in terms grants had a average 2016 D/R ratio of 0.845. This is ~3x the NonCTCL county average in 2016. More bias in favor of D.

To continue on this track, if you look at all the counties in 2016 that had a D/R ratio of less than one (R leaning counties), there were 50 (90%) counties. In total, they received ~ $1.6MM in grants in 2020. This is 67% of the total 2020 CTCL grants in MT. These counties contributed ~352,000 votes (all parties) in 2016 which is 71% of the vote total.

To put it a different way, 67% of the 2020 CTCL grants went to counties where 71% of the votes were cast in 2016 in NonCTCL counties.

The top R leaning counties in 2016 that received CTCL money in 2020…..

Do these facts alone confirm or disapprove my thesis that the grants were NOT used for public safety?

2020DIFF Calculated with Weighted Average

For this analysis, I used a slightly different way to calculate the 2020DIFF using a weighted average based on total votes in a county. This is what it looks like.

w = Total County Vote / Total State Vote

a = D/R2020 - D/R2016 (for CTCL Counties)

a' = a * w (per county)

2020DIFF = sum(a'1:a'n)

This method in theory permits a better correlation for D vote harvesting because it is weighted for counties with higher vote totals.

The 2020DIFF for CTCL counties is 0.101 and for NonCTCL counties it is 0.046. This means that the CTCL D vote harvesting factor in CTCL entities is 0.101-0.046 = 0.055or ~ 5.5%. The number of D votes harvested based on this model is “conservatively” ~10,200 D votes or a potential swing of ~ 20,000 votes. Given that Trump beat Biden by ~ 98,000 votes, CTCL impact made the loss less severe for Biden.

These are all of the CTCL counties.[edited]

Noteworthy R Stalwarts

These are all of the R stalwarts in terms of -2020DIFF which indicates higher R turnout as a ratio to D between 2016 and 2020. Glacier took a lot of money yet still trended R.

Conclusion

CTCL issued ~$2.5MM grants in MT and “purchased” ~ 10,200 more D votes in CTCL counties than would have occurred without CTCL grants. This was not enough to tip the state in favor of Biden.

That is ~ $245/Vote….the highest state average so far! Nothing to be proud of….

Not a very good investment if you are part of the election racketeering cabal.

All Counties

References

2016

2020

CTCL IRS Form 990 (revised form from Jan 2022 used)

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The math here is simple, try this on your own. It is a model to look for trends, not an exact science.