The NGO Project Part XXVII: CTCL in Tennessee
The Pride of Tennessee
Introduction
Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?
Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable democrat ballot harvesting operation.
Background
This is Part XXVII in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect the Center for Technology and Civic Life (CTCL) had on AZ, CO, CT, GA, IA, IL, ME, ME, MI, MN, NC, NH, NJ, NE, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, TX, UT, VT, VA and WI.
This article will solely focus on CTCL in Tennessee (TN).
Calculation Basis
The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.
Analysis
Tennessee is interesting because of the lack of CTCL grants. Let’s see how that looks.
1 of 95 TN counties received CTCL grants.
Total votes cast in CTCL counties were ~ 309,658 (10%) and NonCTCL counties was ~ 2,744,193 (90%). To state it a different way, on a per county basis, CTCL had the opportunity to influence 10% of TN voters.
The total amount of grants to TN was ~ $382,962 and that was made in Davidson County. This is $1.25/vote.
The difference between the single CTCL county and the weighted average of all the other counties in NE is 0.232 - 0.052 = 0.180 or ~ 18%. This infers that the CTCL grant may have turned out about ~36,000 votes in Davidson County.
Trump beat Biden by about ~ 708,000 votes so CTCL seems to have not made much of an impact on TN based on this model.
Noteworthy R Stalwarts
These are the top 5 R stalwarts in terms of -2020DIFF which indicates higher R turnout as a ratio to D between 2016 and 2020. Not a single one took CTCL money.
Overall 62 of 95 counties had a -2020DIFF value indicating a trend to R which is an indication of how strong TN is as an R state.
All Counties
References
CTCL IRS Form 990 (revised form from Jan 2022 used)
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Truth - @ElectionDataAnalyzer
The math here is simple, try this on your own. It is a model to look for trends, not an exact science.