The NGO Project Part XXXIV: CTCL in AZ
Ditat Deus - God Enriches
Introduction
Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?
Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable democrat ballot harvesting operation.
Background
This is Part XXXIV in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect the Center for Technology and Civic Life (CTCL) had on AZ, CO, CT, GA, IA, IL, ME, ME, MI, MN, MT,NC, NH, NJ, NE, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA and WI.
This article will solely focus on CTCL in Arizona (AZ) which is a restatement of my earlier analysis using a weighted average this time.
Calculation Basis
The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.
Analysis
9 of 15 AZ counties (60%) received CTCL grants.
Total votes cast in CTCL counties were ~ 3,037,188 (89%) and NonCTCL counties was ~ 360,002 (11%). To state it a different way, on a per county basis, CTCL had the opportunity to influence 89% of AZ voters.
The total amount of grants to AZ was ~ $5,182,695 and the value of individual grants ranged from ~ $3,900 to $1,840,000.
This table includes the top 5 CTCL grants by county.
$4,507,865 of the grants (87%) were focused in the 5 counties above. The $/vote spent by CTCL in these five counties range from $0.89/vote to $16.98/vote (all parties). The vote totals in these 5 counties account for ~82% of the votes in AZ. 40% of that was in Maricopa County where Phoenix is located.
To state that a different way, 87% of the grants were spent on 82% of the total votes cast in AZ.
The average 2016 D/R ratio for CTCL Counties was 1.015 (not weighted). The average 2016 D/R ratio for NonCTCL Counties was 0.915 (not weighted). This means that CTCL grants were provided to more D leaning counties. The top 5 counties in terms grants had a average 2016 D/R ratio of 1.338….big time D areas for sure. This is ~1.5x the NonCTCL county average in 2016. More bias in favor of D.
To continue on this track, if you look at all the counties in 2016 that had a D/R ratio of less than one (R leaning counties), there were 11 (73%) counties. In total, they received ~ $3.1MM in grants in 2020. This is 59% of the total 2020 CTCL grants in AZ. These counties contributed ~2.1MM votes (all parties) in 2016 which is 80% of the vote total.
To put it a different way, 59% of the 2020 CTCL grants went to counties where 80% of the votes were cast in 2016 in NonCTCL counties. This is the first state where the vote percentage exceeds the grant percentage, and that is because Maricopa was an R county in 2016.
The top R leaning counties in 2016 that received CTCL money in 2020…..
2020DIFF Calculated with Weighted Average
For this analysis, I used a slightly different way to calculate the 2020DIFF using a weighted average based on total votes in a county. This is what it looks like.
w = Total County Vote / Total State Vote
a = D/R2020 - D/R2016 (for CTCL Counties)
a' = a * w (per county)
2020DIFF = sum(a'1:a'n)
This method in theory permits a better correlation for D vote harvesting because it is weighted for counties with higher vote totals.
The 2020DIFF for CTCL counties is 0.097 and for NonCTCL counties it is -0.019. This means that the CTCL D vote harvesting factor in CTCL entities is 0.097-(-0.019) = 0.116 or ~ 12%. The number of D votes harvested based on this model is “conservatively” ~173,000 D votes or a potential swing of ~ 340,000 votes. Given that Biden beat Trump by ~ 10,457 votes, CTCL clearly flipped AZ from a red to a blue state based on this model.
These are all of the CTCL counties.
Noteworthy R Stalwarts
These are all of the R stalwarts in terms of -2020DIFF which indicates higher R turnout as a ratio to D between 2016 and 2020.
Conclusion
CTCL issued ~$5.2MM grants in AZ and “purchased” ~ 173,000 more D votes in CTCL counties than would have occurred without CTCL grants. CTCL flipped AZ from Biden to Trump based on this model.
That is ~ $30/Vote.
Pretty good return on your investment if you are part of the election racketeering cabal.
All Counties
References
CTCL IRS Form 990 (revised form from Jan 2022 used)
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The math here is simple, try this on your own. It is a model to look for trends, not an exact science.