The NGO Project XXIV: CTCL in NM

Crescit Eundo - It grows as it goes

Introduction

Question: Is CTCL misrepresenting the information on the IRS Form 990 stating that the PURPOSE of the grants were to help support the SAFE administration of public elections during the Covid-19 pandemic?

Answer: It appears so given the results of both aggregate, state and county by county analysis as we will see below. It appears this is a quantifiable democrat ballot harvesting operation.

Background

This is Part XXIV in The NGO Project series which examines the role NGOs had in determinative outcomes in the 2020 Presidential Election. In prior articles, I focused on the effect the Center for Technology and Civic Life (CTCL) had on AZ, CO, CT, GA, IA, IL, ME, ME, MI, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, PA, RI, TX, UT, VT, VA and WI.

This article will solely focus on CTCL in New Mexico (NM).

I am restating my NM results (from a prior article) because of an error on the CTCL IRS 990 Form I recently discovered. The grant to Bernanillo County of $1,477,000 was “accidentally” listed under NJ instead of NM. See below.

Calculation Basis

The calculation basis was previously explained in detail here. In this article, I do make one adjustment and that is to calculate the 2020DIFF factor by weighted average rather than arithmetic average.

Analysis

13 of 33 NM counties (40%) received CTCL grants.

Total votes cast in CTCL counties were ~ 616,409 (67%) and NonCTCL counties were ~ 307,556 (33%). To state it a different way, on a per county basis, CTCL had the opportunity to influence 67% of NM voters.

The total amount of grants to NM was ~ $3,268,077 and the value of individual grants ranged from ~ $5,000 to $1,477,000.

This table includes the top 5 CTCL grants by county.

$3,011,929 of the grants (81%) were focused in the 5 counties above. The $/vote spent by CTCL in these five counties range from $4.65/vote to $31.90/vote (all parties). What happened in tiny Cibola County? $31.90/vote? The vote totals in these 5 counties account for ~49% of the votes in NM.

To state that a different way, 81% of the grants were spent on 49% of the total votes cast in NM. Is that fair if this was all about a Plandemic?

The average 2016 D/R ratio for CTCL Counties was 1.245 (not weighted). The average 2016 D/R ratio for NonCTCL Counties was 1.130 (not weighted). This means that CTCL grants were provided to more D leaning counties. The top 5 counties in terms grants had a average 2016 D/R ratio of 2.052….big time D areas for sure. This is ~2x the NonCTCL county average in 2016. More bias in favor of D.

To continue on this track, if you look at all the counties in 2016 that had a D/R ratio of less than one (R leaning counties), there were 19 (58%) counties. In total, they received ~ $163,382 in grants in 2020. This is a stingy ~ 5% of the total 2020 CTCL grants in NM. These counties contributed 214,397 votes (all parties) in 2016 which is 27% of the vote total.

To put it a different way, 5% of the 2020 CTCL grants went to counties where 27% of the votes were cast in 2016 in NonCTCL counties. More bias in favor of D.

The top R leaning counties in 2016 that received CTCL money in 2020…..

Did Hidalgo County really apply for a $5,000 grant?

Do these facts alone confirm or disapprove my thesis that the grants were NOT used for public safety?

2020DIFF Calculated with Weighted Average

For this analysis, I used a slightly different way to calculate the 2020DIFF using a weighted average based on total votes in a county. This is what it looks like.

w = Total County Vote / Total State Vote

a = D/R2020 - D/R2016 (for CTCL Counties)

a' = a * w (per county)

2020DIFF = sum(a'1:a'n)

This method in theory permits a better correlation for D vote harvesting because it is weighted for counties with higher vote totals.

The 2020DIFF for CTCL counties is 0.012 and for NonCTCL counties it is -0.196! This means that the CTCL D vote harvesting factor in CTCL entities is 0.012-(-0.196) = 0.208 or ~ 21%. The number of D votes harvested based on this model is “conservatively” ~45,000 D votes, most of those from Bernanillo County. Given that Biden beat Trump by ~ 99,000 votes, CTCL clearly made this a close race and possibly even flipped it to Biden.

These are all of the CTCL counties.

Noteworthy R Stalwarts

These are the top 5 R stalwarts in terms of -2020DIFF which indicates higher R turnout as a ratio to D between 2016 and 2020. McKinley still trended heavy R even though they received the 3rd largest grant in the state.

Conclusion

CTCL issued ~$3.3MM grants in NM and “purchased” ~ 45,000 more D votes in CTCL counties than would have occurred without CTCL grants. CTCL very well could have flipped NM from Trump to Biden based on this model.

That is ~ $73/Vote.

Pretty good return on your investment if you are part of the election racketeering cabal.

All Counties

References

2016

2020

CTCL IRS Form 990 (revised form from Jan 2022 used)

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The math here is simple, try this on your own. It is a model to look for trends, not an exact science.